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France's elections conclude without a clear majority. Here's what might happen next.
Courtesy of Paris (AP) — French voters have given a broad leftist coalition the most seats in the National Assembly, keeping the far right out of power. However, no party won an outright majority, leading to an uncertain and unprecedented situation.
President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance came in second, with the far right in third, although the latter significantly increased its number of seats in the National Assembly, France's lower house of parliament.
No clear figure has emerged as a potential prime minister. Macron has stated he will wait to decide his next steps and is heading to Washington this week for a NATO summit. The new legislators can start work in Parliament on Monday, with the first new session beginning on July 18.
A Hung Parliament?
Three major political blocs emerged from the elections, but none secured the majority of at least 289 seats out of 577.
The National Assembly, the more powerful of France's two houses of parliament, has the final say in the law-making process over the Senate, which is dominated by conservatives.
While not uncommon in other European countries, modern France has never experienced a parliament with no dominant party.
Such a situation requires lawmakers to build consensus across parties to agree on government positions and legislation. France's fractious politics and deep divisions over taxes, immigration, and Mideast policy make that especially challenging.
This means Macron's centrist allies won't be able to implement their pro-business policies, including a promise to overhaul unemployment benefits. Passing a budget could also become more difficult.
Can Macron Make a Deal with the Left?
Macron may seek a deal with the moderate left to form a joint government. Such negotiations, if they occur, are expected to be very difficult because France has no tradition of this kind of arrangement.
The deal could take the form of a loose, informal alliance that would likely be fragile.
Macron has said he would not work with the hard-left France Unbowed party but could possibly reach out to the Socialists and the Greens. However, they may refuse his offer.
Last week, his government suspended a decree that would have diminished workers' rights to unemployment benefits, interpreted as a gesture toward the left.
If he can't make a political deal, Macron could name a government of experts unaffiliated with political parties. Such a government would likely handle day-to-day affairs to keep France running.
Complicating matters: Any of those options would require parliamentary approval.
Over 50 Countries Go to the Polls in 2024
Is the Left Divided? The left has been torn by divisions in recent months, especially after the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on Israel.
France Unbowed has been sharply criticized by other more moderate leftists for its stance on the conflict. Hard-left leaders have condemned Israel's conduct in the war with Hamas and accused it of pursuing genocide against Palestinians. They have faced accusations of antisemitism, which they strongly deny.
The Socialists ran independently in the European Union elections last month, winning about 14% of the votes, while France Unbowed got less than 10% and the Greens 5.5%.
Yet Macron's move to call snap legislative elections pushed leftist leaders to quickly form a new coalition, the New Popular Front.
Their joint platform promises to raise the minimum salary from 1,400 to 1,600 euros, reverse Macron's pension reform that increased the retirement age from 62 to 64, and freeze prices of essential food products and energy. All this has financial markets worried.
Is an Interim Government Needed?
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said he would resign on Monday but is ready to remain in the post during the upcoming Paris Olympics and as long as needed. An interim government would handle current affairs pending further political negotiations.
Macron's office says he will "wait for the new National Assembly to organize itself" before making any decisions on the new government.
There is no firm timeline for when Macron must name a prime minister, nor a rule that he has to appoint one from the largest party in parliament.
What About Macron?
The president's term runs until 2027, and he has said he will not step down before its end.
With no majority and no possibility of implementing his own plans, Macron emerges weakened from the elections.
In line with France's constitution, he still holds some powers over foreign policy, European affairs, and defense, and is responsible for negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country's armed forces and holds the nuclear codes.
There is a possibility the new prime minister would be unable or unwilling to seriously challenge Macron's defense and foreign policy powers, focusing instead on domestic politics.
The prime minister is accountable to parliament, leads the government, and introduces bills.
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